Measuring the Monsoon

“India Advances in Naval Arms Race With China”
Micha’el Tanchum
The Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies
January 14, 2014

Media in the west has been focused on China’s increasing assertiveness in the East China Sea and the South China Sea. Less visible in the west – but plainly evident to New Delhi – China has been moving to enhance its naval and maritime presence in the Indian Ocean for some time, being careful not to raise the stakes too quickly.

In this brief paper, Micha’el Tanchum offers a sobering, pithy explanation of how China is moving toward provoking a face-off in the IO, as the response from the subcontinent shifts from the diplomatic to the unequivocal.

India now sees China’s moves as zero-sum, as each step China makes in the region is perceived as undermining New Delhi’s strategic position in its own back yard. India does not yet seem ready for a showdown, but Tanchum’s paper leaves a concern that India is not prepared to allow China’s growing influence to continue unchecked for much longer.

 

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China is Not Ready for a Short, Sharp War

“Is China Preparing for a “Short, Sharp War” Against Japan?” Brookings Institution. Jonathan Pollack and Dennis Blasko name the elephant in the room in Asia. Their call: the alarm bells sounding at the US Pacific Fleet are premature because China lacks either the doctrine or preparedness to conduct such an operation. The conclusion is debatable, but it is interesting to note that the issue in debate is neither motive nor opportunity, but capability.

Korea Goes Rogue on China’s ADIZ

Korea’s Mistake on China’s ADIZ Controversy | Center for Strategic and International Studies – Dr. Victor Cha of the CSIS calls the government of South Korea to the carpet for allowing China to play “divide-an-conquer” on the ADIZ issue. Korea had apparently quietly and unilaterally approached China on redrawing its ADIZ to eliminate overlaps with Korea’s ADIZ. Cha says the ROK broke faith with its allies in the region when it did so.

Understanding China’s NSC

Decoding China’s New “National Security Commission”
Joel Wuthnow, Ph.D.
CNA

November 27, 2013

In the wake of the meetings of the Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in November, the government announced the creation of a new body to unify and oversee China’s national security apparatus.

At first blush, the body looks a lot like the US National Security Council. Even though details are scant, dissection of the announcement by CNA’s China specialists suggest that there are subtle yet important differences, and some real bureaucratic challenges. CNA’s Joel Wuthnow pulls together those opinions to begin to add some clarity to the enigma that is China’s NSC.

This is a great read, if for no other reason than to get a glimpse at the birth of a body that will become an important force in global politics going forward.

On November 12, 2013, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) announced the creation of a new “National Security Commission.” Although few details were offered, PRC official sources and commentary by senior PRC security experts provide insight into its purpose and expected achievements. – See more at: http://www.cna.org/research/2013/decoding-chinas-new-national-security-commission#sthash.3D22PgnL.dpuf
On November 12, 2013, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) announced the creation of a new “National Security Commission.” Although few details were offered, PRC official sources and commentary by senior PRC security experts provide insight into its purpose and expected achievements. – See more at: http://www.cna.org/research/2013/decoding-chinas-new-national-security-commission#sthash.3D22PgnL.dpuf

China’s Assertiveness: Seven Years in the Making (At least)

Imperialism with Chinese Characteristics? Reading and Re-Reading China’s 2006 Defense White Paper
Mike Metcalf
NI Press
September 2011

Flag ~ China - People's Liberation Army

Flag ~ China – People’s Liberation Army (Photo credit: e r j k p r u n c z y k)

Mike Metcalf, a member of the faculty at the National Intelligence University in the US, has spent a lot of time parsing China’s seminal 2006 Defense White Paper. China has issued such signalling documents in the past. What distinguishes this one, according to Metcalf, is that it points Beijing toward a national security posture that goes beyond territorial defense.

In the publication, Metcalf provides his own overview of the white paper, then offers two translations of the analysis of the paper by the man considered its pricipal drafter, Dr. Chen Zhou of the PLA Academy of Military Sciences, as well as Metcalf’s own analyses of Dr. Chen’s point of view.

It is a rare treat to have an informed and scholarly discussion on Chinese source material made available in a format the rest of us can digest. All the more so given that the import of this book is to prove that China’s assertive nationalism is not a product of Xi Jinping’s making, but something that has been in the works for nearly a decade. As such, it is hard to expect this direction to be fleeting: we are looking at what is likely to be a lasting trend in Chinese international relations.

For the PLA, Has War Already Begun?

“China’s ‘Three Warfares’ and India”
Abhijit Singh
Journal of Defence Studies
October-December 2013
pp. 27-46

Cymraeg: Sun Tzu. mwl: Sun Tzu. Português: Sun...

Sun Tzu (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The author, who is a research fellow at India’s Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, offers up a highly readable paper with a fascinating proposition: China is already at war with India.

Singh calls out what he calls China’s “Three Warfares” (3Ws) strategy, by which China wages war against an adversary by influencing public opinion, conducting psychological operations, and laying the legal groundwork to support its territorial claims. The PLA, through “work regulations” issued in 2010, is now focusing that effort on India.

It does not demand much effort to see that China is pursuing the same approach in the South China Sea and the East China Sea. What is disturbing is that this effort is not directed by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, but by the PLA. This is not diplomacy as far as the Party is concerned: this is asymmetrical warfare.

The paper is a fascinating, short, and essential read for those looking to understand China’s near-abroad foreign policy, and who inside of Beijing’s guarded compounds is actually running the show.