Red Alert: The Growing Threat to U.S. Aircraft Carriers 

As China deploys surface-to-air missile (SAM) launchers to the Woody Islands in the South China Sea, CNAS Defense Strategies and Assessments Program Associate Fellow Kelley Sayler has written a new report, “Red Alert: The Growing Threat to U.S. Aircraft Carriers.” The report examines the short-, medium-, and long-range threats to the carrier – including SAMs and other anti-access/area denial capabilities, in which China is investing heavily – and concludes that U.S. carriers will not be able to act with impunity in the event of future conflict.

Source: Red Alert: The Growing Threat to U.S. Aircraft Carriers | Center for a New American Security

PLA Expeditionary Capabilities and Implications for United States Asia Policy 

Alongside China’s development of many capabilities necessary to conduct missions far from its borders, China’s actions to shape the international security environment are accelerating. This poses both opportunities and challenges for U.S. policymakers.

PLA Expeditionary Capabilities and Implications for United States Asia Policy | RAND

This is the text of the testimony Kristen Gunness made to the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission in January of this year. Reading between the lines, it is clear that China is determined to wield a big stick far from its home shores.

The Resilience of Cold War Strategic Alliances

William Tow at the Australian National University summarizes the results of an ANU conference covering the question of why Cold War strategic alliances remain in force in Asia. The obvious answer is “China.” But Tow notes that there is more to it than that, and that the bigger question facing these alliances is how much US involvement in those tie-ups is a substantive factor, and how much of it is so much rhetoric.
Tow’s paper is another sign that observers around the Pacific are unsettled about the degree to which the Obama Administration’s “Asia Pivot” is real vs. so much aspirational hot air.

Kroeber on Soros’ hard landing

In effect, the world has already experienced a China hard landing. This helps explain why markets react in such terror at every hint the renminbi might fall in value: a weaker renminbi reduces the dollar value of the goods China can buy on international markets, at a time when demand from its traditional industrial and construction sectors is already declining.

Source: Is George Soros Right that China’s Headed for a Hard Landing? | ChinaFile

Arthur Kroeber’s eloquent take on George Soros’ prediction: China is not likely to land hard this year. But the sum total of policy changes underway are going to make it a lot rougher for the rest of the world as China’s role as global growth engine diminishes.