PLA Expeditionary Capabilities and Implications for United States Asia Policy 

Alongside China’s development of many capabilities necessary to conduct missions far from its borders, China’s actions to shape the international security environment are accelerating. This poses both opportunities and challenges for U.S. policymakers.

PLA Expeditionary Capabilities and Implications for United States Asia Policy | RAND

This is the text of the testimony Kristen Gunness made to the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission in January of this year. Reading between the lines, it is clear that China is determined to wield a big stick far from its home shores.

The Resilience of Cold War Strategic Alliances

William Tow at the Australian National University summarizes the results of an ANU conference covering the question of why Cold War strategic alliances remain in force in Asia. The obvious answer is “China.” But Tow notes that there is more to it than that, and that the bigger question facing these alliances is how much US involvement in those tie-ups is a substantive factor, and how much of it is so much rhetoric.
Tow’s paper is another sign that observers around the Pacific are unsettled about the degree to which the Obama Administration’s “Asia Pivot” is real vs. so much aspirational hot air.

Kroeber on Soros’ hard landing

In effect, the world has already experienced a China hard landing. This helps explain why markets react in such terror at every hint the renminbi might fall in value: a weaker renminbi reduces the dollar value of the goods China can buy on international markets, at a time when demand from its traditional industrial and construction sectors is already declining.

Source: Is George Soros Right that China’s Headed for a Hard Landing? | ChinaFile

Arthur Kroeber’s eloquent take on George Soros’ prediction: China is not likely to land hard this year. But the sum total of policy changes underway are going to make it a lot rougher for the rest of the world as China’s role as global growth engine diminishes. 

 

Revisiting the Umbrellas

“Hong Kong Revisited”
Jeffrey Wasserstrom
The LARB Blog
November 18, 2015

U.C. Irvine professor and prolific writer Jeffrey Wasserstrom offers a minimalist retrospective on the Umbrella movement a year after the events began, and on the lecture he gave in Hong Kong on the topic last fall.

And while there are many reasons to be deeply worried about Hong Kong’s future, it is important to remember that, at least for now, a public lecture focusing on protest and featuring a large group of citizens thinking together about their city, their politics, and their future, is still possible in that very special city.

Wasserstrom does not come right out and foretell the end of democracy in Hong Kong, but the tone carries that ominous, almost fatalistic, overtone. It is impossible to say whether the umbrella protests of 2014 will have a meaningful effect on how Hong Kong is governed. The real question is whether we have witnessed the last such protest in the city’s modern history.

We who live outside of Hong Kong shall have no say in the matter. The future of politics in Hong Kong lies in the hands of the people of that city and the men and women who rule China.

The CSIS on 2016

The end of the year always produces some superb retrospectives and forecasts. I’ve spent a few minutes every day of the last week going through The Economist’s 2016 forecast, and have found it excellent, although suffering from the limitations imposed by a generalist audience.
Those looking for a deeper dive into some of the world’s hot spots would be well-served to pick up the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ (CSIS) 2016 Global Forecast, available for a free download at the CSIS website. Of particular interest to China-watchers is part 5, which includes articles from Christopher Johnson (“rReform Cold, Politics Hot,”) Bonnie Glaser and Matthew Funaiole (“Geopolitical Consequences of China’s Economic Slowdown,”) and the brilliant Scott Kennedy (“Economic Consequences of China’s Economic Slowdown.”)
Add this to your January and Chinese New Year reading list.