A surprising number of people in China have been writing and talking about "revolution". First came word, in November, that China's new leaders have been advising their colleagues to read Alexis de Tocqueville's classic book on the French Revolution, L’Ancien Régime et la Révolution (The Old Regime and the Revolution), which subsequently has shot to the top of China's best seller lists…
“Splits in the Politburo Leadership?”
Alice L. Miller
China Leadership Monitor
2011, No. 34
Hoover Institution
As a part of our Eighteenth Party Congress series, we will be offering some of the more thoughtful examinations of China’s changing leadership. In this first article, The Hoover Institution’s Alice Miller explains why splits among the Politburo Standing Committee‘s leaders are likely to remain manageable and behind closed doors.
I am inclined to agree with her analysis, simply because the interests that hold the nation’s leaders together are – with the exception of cases like that of Bo Xilai – far stronger than the disagreements which might sunder them. The real fault lines in the Chinese polity lay elsewhere.
“Why China Will Democratize”
Yu Liu and Dingding Chen
The Washington Quarterly
Winter 2012
Liu and Chen make a strong argument that China’s government and institutions will have little choice but to become increasingly participatory over time. At the same time, they warn that “democracy with Chinese characteristics” may not be recognizable to, or necessarily satisfy, those in the west who harbor the dream that the world’s largest nation will become its largest participatory state.
China is on the cusp of change, and the two scholars suggest that the Party is losing the support of a the “middle class.” Once the moneyed, educated urban elite goes sour on the CCP, the authors imply, the Party will have no choice but to reform. And sour they will go, the authors note, because the government lacks the wherewithal to continue delivering the economic performance that the people have come to believe are its entitlement. They echo an argument that is becoming increasingly common: the Chinese social contract is broken, and the Party will have to produce reform to establish a new one.
None of the arguments are particularly novel, but the reason it is worth reading is the provenance of the authors. Liu is a professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, and Chen teaches at the University of Macau. For two Chinese scholars to put forth these arguments would have been unlikely if not unthinkable a decade ago. Clearly something interesting is happening in Chinese academia, an indicator that support on the mainland for major change may run deeper than many of us suspect.
The Political Mapping of China’s Tobacco Industry and Anti-Smoking Campaign
Cheng Li
Brookings Institution
October 25, 2012
Arguably the most important policy direction laid out in China’s Twelfth Five-Year Plan is health care. Given China’s rising standards of living and the challenges that rising medical costs present even to the developed economies of the west, this came as no surprise.
What gives this focus an edge of urgency are a cluster of looming public health crises that threaten to dwarf anything China’s medical establishment has faced in decades, perhaps ever. Atop that list of impending challenges is China’s smoking problem. Over 300 million Chinese smoke cigarettes every day (versus under 60 million Americans) and the average Chinese daily smoker has a two-pack-a-day habit. Experts estimate that tobacco-related diseases kill 1.2 million people a year in China, and that will increase to 2 million by 2020.
One of the few upsides of oligarchy is the relative ease with which you can legislate such problems away, and Beijing has done so often enough in the past that when a problem arises (like air pollution,) Chinese and foreigners alike wonder why the government isn’t doing anything. So it is with smoking. Here is a problem that the government could fix easily, following a path well-trodden in the west: why doesn’t it?
In his highly-readable but awkwardly-titled monography, Cheng Li lays out the institutional framework that feeds this national habit. The critical importance of tobacco to China’s tax revenues, potential resentment from poor smokers, and an intricate web of shared interests that tie China’s leadership with the industry all stand in the way of far-reaching anti-smoking campaigns.
All of this would make stimulating reading at any time, but given the report’s release on the verge of a major change in leadership in Beijing, the tale is particularly juicy. Among the report’s revelations are ties between Vice-Premier Li Keqiang, who holds the State Council‘s public health portfolio, and the State Tobacco Monopoly Administration. The revelations here are startling, yet one can only wonder about what Li knows but cannot put to paper.
“China and the Politics of Oil”
Jacqueline N. Deal
Foreign Policy Research Institute
May 2012
An essay based on a speech by FPRI Senior Fellow Deal, this paper explains the basis of China’s mild paranoia about access to energy supplies. A superb primer to the problem.
Beijing’s “Starter Carrier” and Future Steps: Alternatives and Implications – Andrew S. Erickson, Abraham M. Denmark, and Gabriel Collins
via U.S. Naval War College | 2012 – Winter.
In this excellent review essay the Naval War College’s excellent team of China Watchers give offer a balanced view of the significance of China’s new aircraft carrier and, more important, what it portends.
Maintaining up-to-date information and deep knowledge about Africa is critical to the team at the U.S. Africa Command. To that end, a reading list was compiled to provide suggestions. Here are some top picks. Check the blog next week for the full list.
Thanks to the AFRICOM Research Library for providing us with this list. Look for an upcoming story on the library, new to Kelley Barracks.
This great guest post comes from a friend. Over the next few days she'll be introducing her research on the Misty Poets. If you are a grad student working on a China related topic please contact Tom about the possibility of introducing here.
“Misty”is the title conferred upon a group of poets known during the Democracy Movement （1976-1980）for their unique style.
Image via Wikipedia
Forecasting the future is a tricky business, but it is not an altogether unrewarding one. Get it right, and you can remind people forever. Get it wrong, and most people will forget. Less fraught, however, is the habit of making business and policy decisions based on such prognoses: bet the farm on somebody else’s forecast, and your posterior is on the chopping block, not theirs.
It was with that slightly cynical thought in mind that we undertook to review China and India, 2025: A Comparative Assessment. Comparisons between China and India and their prospects are almost as common as all other forms of future gazing. At the very least, we are told, these will be two of the powers who will determine the course of the 21st century. The only question is which country has the economic model and political resilience necessary to take and hold the lead.
But the authors of this particular study place little stock in such predictions of global dominance. They recognize that there are too many uncertainties to make a prediction either way: what they are interested in discovering is which of these countries seems most likely to beat the other?
Spoiler alert: they are betting on India.
Since I’ve let that little tidbit out of the bag, I will not explain why, because that’s the fun of reading this report: understanding not just the rhetoric but the math behind their reasoning that makes India such a good bet over the next 15 years.
There are a ton of qualifications along the way, and the authors all but tell the reader “hey, don’t make any bets based on this conclusion, because, you know, anything could happen.” All of which sort of undermines the point of reading through it. But push these disclaimers out of your head and follow along with the reasoning, because the framework they use to analyze the two countries is worth considering at length.
How the World Works goes to China – How the World Works – Salon.com
“Mayor Mike Bloomberg says Americans don’t even know “what China is.” So let’s find out! “
Chairman Mao teaches us… – How the World Works – Salon.com
“Mediated memories of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution, while sitting in an Air China airport gate “
What Beijing’s horrendous traffic jams say about green energy – How the World Works – Salon.com
“China says its growth is about development, not luxury like in the West. But where’d all the bikes go? “
Inside China’s housing bubble – How the World Works – Salon.com
“In Nanning, construction is booming. But what happens when the apartments are all built? “
“China’s Communist government’s censorship rules — and behind-the-scenes moves long suspected by U.S. executives to help local companies edge out foreign ones — are major obstacles.”
Nation & World | Fast train, huge dam show China can build big | Seattle Times Newspaper
“China rolled out its fastest train yet on Tuesday, an engineering triumph that signal the nation’s growing ambitions as its economy booms.”
Business & Technology | NASA chief visits China manned space launch site | Seattle Times Newspaper
“The head of NASA visited China’s manned space flight launch center during a trip to the country to explore possibilities for cooperation, the U.S. agency said Tuesday.”
Business & Technology | Google keeping eye on China | Seattle Times Newspaper
“Google is adding employees and redoubling efforts to win new advertisers in China.”
Business & Technology | China’s domestic plane industry forging ahead | Seattle Times Newspaper
“The Zhuhai air show is showcasing China’s ambitions to create Asia’s first successful commercial airplane business in a challenge to Airbus and Boeing’s long-standing domination of the industry.”
Alibaba says Yahoo not needed as a partner
“China – Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., China’s biggest e-commerce company, no longer needs Yahoo because the U.S. partner is moving away from its search-engine technology, the head of Alibaba’s listed unit said.”
Japan wants China to crack down on labor unrest
“Japan called Saturday for “transparent policies” governing workers in China, saying labor disputes that halted operations at dozens of factories this year were troubling to Japanese companies.”
Business & Technology | China announces new crackdown on product piracy | Seattle Times Newspaper
“China’s government announced a new crackdown Tuesday on rampant illegal copying of products from software to music that is adding to tensions with Washington and other governments over trade and currency complaints.”
“I’m sure the Russian people will be shocked—shocked!—to discover that U.S. diplomats think the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, “plays Robin to Putin’s Batman.” Italians will be equally horrified to learn that their prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, is considered “feckless, vain, and ineffective as a modern European leader,” just as the French will be stunned to hear President Nicolas Sarkozy called “thin-skinned and authoritarian.” As for the Afghans, they will be appalled to read that their president, Hamid Karzai, has been described as “an extremely weak man who did not listen to facts.”"
Is Catholicism in China different from elsewhere? – By Christopher Beam – Slate Magazine
Cardinals from around the world gathered in Rome on Friday to discuss, among other things, the planned ordination in China of a bishop who hasn’t been approved by the Vatican. How is being Catholic in China different from being Catholic in Europe?
The Role of COMINT in the Battle of Midway
“While the Japanese debated the merits of the proposed operations, the United States Navy was trying to marshal its forces to counter the next Japanese offensive, but they did not know where or when the Japanese would strike. This was critical for two reasons: First, the United States was committed to a defensive war in the Pacific–they had to wait and react to Japanese actions, and, second, since they were committed to defend the Hawaii-Australia line with inferior numbers and weapons, the only real chance for success was to concentrate their forces at the right place at the right time. “
“A Priceless Advantage:
U.S. Navy Communications Intelligence and
the Battles of Coral Sea, Midway, and the Aleutians
Frederick D. Parker”
HyperWar: A Magnificent Fight: Marines in the Battle for Wake Island
“A Magnificent Fight:
Marines in the Battle for Wake Island
Marines in World War II
Commemorative Series
by Robert J. Cressman”
HyperWar: US Army in WWII: The Fall of the Philippines
“United States Army in World War II
The War in the Pacific
The Fall of the Philippines
Louis Morton “
HyperWar: Campaigns of MacArthur in the Pacific–Vol. I
” Reports of General MacArthur
THE CAMPAIGNS OF MACARTHUR IN THE PACIFIC
VOLUME I
5-star colar emblem
PREPARED BY HIS GENERAL STAFF
“
HyperWar: The U.S. Army Campaigns of World War II: Philippine Islands
“The well-coordinated Japanese campaign, spread across great reaches of the Pacific, progressed with astonishing rapidity. The small U.S. Army and Marine garrisons on Guam and Wake surrendered on 10 and 22 December, respectively, and the British forces in Hong Kong on 26 December. Singapore, the supposedly impregnable British bastion on the Malay Peninsula, capitulated on 15 February 1942. Following lightning amphibious landings in Thailand and Burma, Japanese forces pushed to the northwest, threatening India. Only in the Philippines did the combined U.S.-Filipino units mount a prolonged resistance, holding out with grim determination for five months. “
USN Combat Narrative: The Java Sea Campaign
“Combat Narrative
The
Java Sea Campaign
Publication Branch
Office of Naval Intelligence * United States Navy
1943″
“Captain Wallin salvaged most of the broken Pearl Harbor fleet that went on to figure prominently in the United States Navy’s victory. So the account he masterfully tells covers what he masterfully accomplished. The United States owes him an unpayable debt for this high service among many others in his long career.”
HyperWar: Infamous Day: Marines at Pearl Harbor
“Infamous Day:
Marines at Pearl Harbor
7 December 1941
Marines in World War II
Commemorative Series
by Robert J. Cressman
and J. Michael Wenger”
HyperWar: Certain Aspects of MAGIC …
” Certain Aspects of MAGIC in the Cryptological Background
of the Various Official Investigations
Into the Attack on Pearl Harbor”
HyperWar: Pearl Harbor Revisited: U.S. Navy Communications Intelligence, 1924-1941
“
UNITED STATES CRYPTOLOGIC HISTORY
Pearl Harbor Revisited:
United States Navy Communications Intelligence
1924-1941
Frederick D. Parker”
The “Magic” Background To Pearl Harbor
“The Department of Defense is releasing for public use and research this multi-volume study giving the “MAGIC” or communications intelligence background of the 1941 Pearl Harbor disaster. In its review of classified records pursuant to E. O. 11652, the Department of Defense decided that it was in the public interest to declassify the intelligence which the U.S. obtained from the communications of its World War II enemies. This study contains a major part of the communications intelligence which the U.S. derived from intercepted Japanese communications during 1941. “
WWII Campaigns: China Defensive
“The China Theater of Operations more resembled the Soviet-German war on the Eastern Front than the war in the Pacific or the war in Western Europe. On the Asian continent, as on the Eastern Front, an Allied partner, China, carried the brunt of the fighting. China had been at war with Japan since 1937 and continued the fight until the Japanese surrender in 1945. The United States advised and supported China’s ground war, while basing only a few of its own units in China for operations against Japanese forces in the region and Japan itself. The primary American goal was to keep the Chinese actively in the Allied war camp, thereby tying down Japanese forces that otherwise might be deployed against the Allies fighting in the Pacific.”
HyperWar: US Army in WWII: Time Runs Out in CBI
” United States Army in World War II
China-Burma-India Theater
Time Runs Out in CBI
by
Charles F. Romanus
and
Riley Sunderland”
HyperWar: US Army in WWII: Stillwell’s Mission to China
“United States Army in World War II
China-Burma-India Theater
Stillwell’s Mission to China
by
Charles F. Romanus
and
Riley Sunderland”
HyperWar: US Army in WWII: Stillwell’s Command Problems
“United States Army in World War II
China-Burma-India Theater
Stillwell’s Command Problems
by
Charles F. Romanus
and
Riley Sunderland”
HyperWar: U.S. Government Manual–1945
“United States Government Manual
1945
First Edition
(Revisions through March 10) “
HyperWar: The U.S. Army Campaigns of World War II: India-Burma
“By occupying Burma, the Japanese had not only gained access to vast resources of teak and rubber, but they had dosed the Burma Road, 700 miles of dirt highway that represented China’s last overland link with the outside world. The reopening of an overland route to China would be the major American goal, indeed obsession, in the theater throughout the campaign. “
HyperWar: The U.S. Army Campaigns of World War II: China Offensive
“Suffering from the travails of a civil war that had begun in 1911, and from pervasive economic problems, China had lost much of its enthusiasm for the struggle against the Japanese. Since 1937, when the Sino-Japanese conflict became an open war, China’s best troops had been repeatedly defeated and its richest coastal and riverine cities captured by the Japanese. From the beginning of World War II, Allied planners believed it would be essential to assist China in its war against Japan, but had not regarded it as a decisive theater. Unable to deploy ground forces for operations there, the United States provided air and logistical support, technical assistance, and military advice to the Chinese army for its continuing struggle against the Japanese. “
HyperWar: The U.S. Army Campaigns of World War II: China Defensive
“The United States confronted two fundamental challenges in the China theater. The first challenge was political. Despite facing a common foe in Japan, Chinese society was polarized. Some Chinese were supporters of the Nationalist Kuomintang government; some supported one of the numerous former warlords nominally loyal to the Nationalists; and some supported the Communists, who were engaged in a guerrilla war against the military and political forces of the Nationalists. Continuing tensions, which sometimes broke out into pitched battles, precluded development of a truly unified Chinese war effort against the Japanese. “
HyperWar: The U.S. Army Campaigns of World War II: Central Burma
“While American forces in the Pacific had been making dramatic progress since early 1942, the Allied effort in the China-Burma-India theater had bogged down in a morass of conflicting national objectives. The hope Americans held in the early stages of the war, that Chinese manpower and bases would play a vital role in the defeat of Japan, was unrealized. Americans sought to achieve great aims on the Asian mainland at small cost, looking to the British in India and the Chinese, with their vast reservoirs of manpower, to carry the main burden of the ground conflict. Neither proved capable of exerting the effort the Americans had hoped. “
“The “Burma” Truck
Chrysler Export Corporation
China Service Contract DA-TPS-83306
Ther Dodge Division of Chrysler Corporation produced these trucks during the Second World War for the Chinese Army’s use on the Burma and Ledo Roads. “
HyperWar: “China’s Role in the Recapture of Burma”
“The purpose of this monograph is to cover the operation of the Chinese Army in Burma from its advance on Myitkyina and Tenchung until the recapture of Lashio, 8 March 1945.”
HyperWar: US Army in WWII: Guarding the United States and Its Outposts
“United States Army in World War II
The Western Hemisphere
Guarding the United States and Its Outposts
Stetson Conn, Rose C. Engelman, and Byron Fairchild “
HyperWar: Herringbone Cloak–GI Dagger: Marines of the OSS
“Herringbone Cloak–GI Dagger: Marines of the OSS
by
Major Robert E. Mattingly, USMC
Marine Corps Command and Staff College
10 May 1979 “
HyperWar: The United States at War: Development and Administration of the War Program
“The United States at War
Development and Administration of the War Program
by the Federal Government
Prepared Under the Auspices of
The Committee of Records of War Administration
by the
War Records Section
Bureau of the Budget “
HyperWar: Administrative Histories of WWII Civilian Agencies of the Federal Government
“Administrative Histories of World War II
Civilian Agencies of the Federal Government
Adapted from Thompson-Gale Primary Source Microfilm
“Reel: #, No. #” info refers to location of documents on PSM microfilm “
HyperWar: Guide to U.S. Naval Administrative Histories of World War II
“Guide to
United States Naval
Administrative Histories
of World War II
Compiled by
William C. Heimdahl
and
Edward J. Marolda
Naval History Division
Department of the “
HyperWar: US Army in WWII: Chief of Staff–Prewar Plans and Operations
“United States Army in World War II
The War Department
Chief of Staff: Prewar Plans and Operations
by
Mark Skinner Watson”
HyperWar: US Army in WWII: Washington Command Post: The Operations Division
“United States Army in World War II
The War Department
Washington Command Post: The Operations Division
by
Ray S. Cline
“
” Army Air Forces
in
World War II
Vol. I: Plans & Early Operations, January 1939 to August 1942
Prepared Under the Editorship of
Wesley Frank Craven Princeton University
James Lea Cate University of Chicago”
HyperWar: US Army in WWII: The Framework of Hemisphere Defense
“United States Army in World War II
The Western Hemisphere
The Framework of Hemisphere Defense
Stetson Conn and Byron Fairchild “
HyperWar: Commander Task Force 24
“Administrative History of the U.S. Atlantic Fleet in World War II
Volume II
Commander Task Force Twenty-Four
Commander in Chief
United States Atlantic Fleet
1946″
HyperWar: The U.S. Army Campaigns of World War II: Defense of the Americas
The defense of the Americas was the longest, most uneventful, and least heralded military campaign the United States conducted in World War II. Yet it was fundamental to Allied victory against the Axis coalition, for it guaranteed the security of the base that President Franklin D. Roosevelt earlier termed the “arsenal of democracy.” It likewise guarded the Americas from attack while the United States raised and trained its armed forces.
Phones with Facebook buttons: too friendly? – Computerworld
“HTC’s announcement of two smartphones linked closer than ever to Facebook will lead an industry trend, analysts say, but despite the social network’s popularity most users will ultimately prefer handhelds without the special feature. “
Favorite rock band name this week: “Simian Corpora
Favorite rock band name this week: “Simian Corporal Punishment.”
Put off by the rising cost of good pizza in Shunyi
Put off by the rising cost of good pizza in Shunyi, @sunnybeijing is trying her hand at making pizza dough. Will advise results.
My Name Is Not Bob: Best Blogs for Writers to Follow
Fellow scribes: Best Blogs for Writers to Follow http://ping.fm/WGP1b Any other suggestions?
Staffer asks Italian PM what 2 do with 2,000 Tunis
Staffer asks Italian PM what 2 do with 2,000 Tunisian refugees who’ve landed at Naples, seeking asylum. Silvio thinks, asks “are they cute?”
China Dependent On Tobacco In More Ways Than One : NPR
“Given China’s burgeoning ranks of smokers, the tobacco business has been hugely lucrative for Beijing, with annual profits up almost 20 percent every year for the past five years.”
We are probably some time away from being able to assess fully any battle of the Vietnam War. Indeed, we are still learning more about major engagements of World War Two some sixty years after the fact.
The urgency around learning (or relearning) the lessons of Vietnam, though, is enough to reopen the books on many engagements that have gone ignored, forgotten, or unreviewed for some time. Near the top of that list must be the Battle for and the Siege of the U.S. Marine Corps firebase at Khe Sanh.
Image via Wikipedia
While nothing approaches Michael Herr’s Dispatches for an account of the battle from inside the wire at
Khe Sanh, Herr offers a memoir rather than history. And while he told with wit and empathy the stories of the men on the ground, the effort in the air to stave off a massive force of North Vietnamese regulars begs for review.
Here, in the words of the U.S. Air Force, is that story. While certainly told from the service’s point of view, no other source gives quite the same appreciation of the scope and magnitude of the critical role that air support, resupply by air, aeromedical evacuation, and airmobility played in keeping Khe Sanh from turning into a replay of the French debacle at Dien Bien Phu thirteen years before.
If nothing else, this account is a critical starting point for any examination of air power and the ground war in Vietnam.
Also available from Amazon here.
This book offers a brief but gripping account celebrating the role air power played in the successful evacuation of 1,500 U.S. and Vietnamese servicemen from a trap laid by the North Vietnamese Army in Vietnam in 1968.
While crediting the personal heroism of U.S. aviators in the effort, historian Alan Gropman (a Tufts Ph.D. and Air Force colonel) does not whitewash the “severe” losses suffered in crews and aircraft the Air Force suffered, and calls commanders for task for poor coordination and control of the effort.
Despite the temptation to condemn the veracity of this publication because it originated from the Bush White House, in Dubya’s defense, I have a hard time trusting any economic work coming out of 1600 Pennsylvania regardless of who is sitting in the Big Chair. There are other arms of government, such as the Congressional Budget Office, that tend to do more rigorous, less politically tainted analysis.
Nonetheless, this document is of historic interest because it describes a perspective that can be retroactively balanced against the facts. Just how much did the Bush Administration understand – or admit to understanding – about the nature of the economy in the wake of the financial crisis?
A quick read.
This PDF book compiles some important primary sources on the evolution of the relationship between China and ASEAN over the past two decades. China has attempted to interpose itself into ASEAN, and the effectiveness of that ongoing effort, will determine whether Southeast Asia becomes a regional power in its own right, or whether it simply becomes another sphere of influence wherein China, India, Europe, Japan, and the U.S. play an updated version of The Great Game.
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